20. How I Combine Macro + Company Analysis

on

How I Combine Macro + Company Analysis

macroeconomics + financial analysis

Most investors choose one side:

  • either macro (economy, politics, rates)

  • or company analysis (financials, valuation)

     That’s a mistake.

Because:

The best investments happen when both align.

This is exactly how I combine them.

Step 1 — Start With Macro Direction

Before I look at any company, I ask:

    Where is money flowing globally?

Right now (2026):

  • political shift in Hungary

  • expected EU fund inflows

  • potential rate cuts

  • global uncertainty still present

From Article #2 and #11:

     Hungary is moving from risk → opportunity

Step 2 — Identify Benefiting Sectors

Macro doesn’t affect everything equally.

Example:

After the election:

Likely winners:

  • banks

  • telecom

  • infrastructure

  • domestic-focused companies

So I narrow focus to:

  • OTP Bank

  • Magyar Telekom

  • Richter Gedeon

     This is macro filtering

Step 3 — Apply Company-Level Analysis

Now I go back to Article #17 framework:

  • revenue

  • earnings

  • debt

  • valuation

  • moat

Example:

Magyar Telekom

  • stable cash flow

  • strong market position

  • benefits from improving sentiment

     Macro + fundamentals aligned

Step 4 — Check Valuation vs Macro Expectations

This is critical.

Sometimes:

     macro is positive BUT price already reflects it

So I ask:

  • Is this already priced in?

  • Is there still upside?

Example:

If Hungarian stocks already rallied hard:

     risk/reward changes

Step 5 — Decide Local vs Global Allocation

Even if macro is strong:

     I never go all-in one country

So I balance:

Local:

  • Hungary plays (election-driven upside)

Global:

  • Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF

     This protects against macro mistakes

Step 6 — Add Bonds Based on Macro

Macro directly affects bonds.

Example:

If:

  • rates are high

  • but expected to fall

     bonds become attractive

That’s why I added:

  • iShares $ Treasury Bond 1-3yr UCITS ETF

     This is a pure macro decision

Step 7 — Position Sizing Based on Confidence

Now I combine everything:

  • macro strength

  • company quality

  • valuation

Then I decide:

  • large position → strong alignment

  • small position → uncertainty

Step 8 — Monitor Macro Changes Continuously

Macro changes faster than companies.

I track:

  • EU fund developments

  • interest rates

  • political stability

If macro breaks:

     I reduce exposure

What Most Investors Do Wrong

They:

  • buy good companies in bad environments

  • ignore macro completely

  • or chase macro without fundamentals

     Both fail long term

Real Example From My Portfolio

Why I hold:

Magyar Telekom

  • strong company

  • improving macro

Why I reduced risk:

Greenlane Renewables

  • weak fundamentals

  • no macro support

     That’s the difference

The Real Formula

Here is the system:

Macro tells you WHERE to look
Company analysis tells you WHAT to buy

What Comes Next

Next article:

    “P/E Ratio Is Not Enough — What Really Matters”

Because most investors still:

     misunderstand valuation completely

Final Thought

You don’t need to predict the future perfectly.

You need:

  • direction (macro)

  • selection (company analysis)

  • discipline (execution)

That’s how real investing works.

Comments

Post a Comment