The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its monthly oil market report, revising its production and demand forecasts for 2023 and 2024. Here are the key findings:
- Estimated demand growth for 2023 decreased by 90 kbd to 2.3 mbd.
- The global demand forecast saw a reduction of 400 kbd only in the fourth quarter of 2023.
- The growth in U.S. oil supply continues to exceed expectations, surpassing 20 mbd.
- OPEC+ countries will be the main drivers of oil production growth in 2024, with an increase of 1.2 mbd.
- OPEC+ market share is expected to decline to 51% this year.
- According to the IEA, OPEC+ cuts in the first quarter of 2024 are not expected to lead to a significant price decline. The IEA points out that the growth in non-OPEC+ supply and weak demand prevents prices from rising as some countries would prefer.
- Improved GDP growth prospects for 2024 raise global demand growth to 1.1 mbd, an increase of 130 kbd.
While most of the IEA's comments are negative, this latest report appears relatively positive. However, the IEA still anticipates a balanced market next year and does not foresee a significant increase in oil prices.
WTI crude oil is once again above $70/bbl today, having tested close to $71/bbl. The seasonality index indicates the possibility of further market activity.
Source: TradingView
Comments
Post a Comment