Markets
Major international indices showed mixed performance on Friday, with only the Nasdaq 100 managing to achieve a half-percent gain. The DAX and the S&P 500 mostly stagnated, although the latter was able to close the week quite strongly. On Friday, technology stocks demonstrated strength, but overall, the week was robust for all sectors, with only the communication sector closing in the negative. Approaching the end of the year, the S&P 500 is already above 4700 points, indicating fundamentally near two-year highs. This morning, Asian markets also show a slight decline after the Federal Reserve's comments last week somewhat tempered the optimism that characterized the markets following the interest rate decision. European futures indices also exhibit a slight decrease this morning, suggesting a modest decline in trading may start.
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Currencies
The weakening of the dollar stalled, and thus, last Friday, the U.S. currency showed strength once again. The EURUSD exchange rate declined from around 1.10 to the 1.09 level. Technically, this is visibly forming a double top formation in the short term, which may also hinder further weakening of the dollar. The stronger dollar did not favor regional currencies either.
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Bond Market
Yields in the secondary market stabilized in the second half of the previous week, but they still experience a significant decline when looking at the last months of the year together. The German 10-year bond decreased to 2%, while the U.S. bond slipped to 3.9%, essentially representing a 100-110 basis point decrease over a two-month period. Clearly, bond prices are reacting positively to this development, for instance, the TLT price managed to jump by 20%.
Weekly Makro Data
Even before the holidays, there are noteworthy macroeconomic events to keep an eye on. From the United States, the focus primarily falls on Friday's PCE inflation data, which analysts estimate may have decreased to 2.8% in November. In Europe, besides the British Consumer Price Index, Wednesday's new car sales figures could also bring surprises.
We've compiled the key macroeconomic events to watch:
| Date | Time (EST) | Country/Region | Event | Expectation | Previous Data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.18.2023. | 04:00 | GER | IFO business sentiment index | 87.8 | 87.3 |
| 12.20.2023. | 02:00 | GER | Producer price index (year/year) | -7.50% | -11% |
| 12.20.2023. | 02:00 | UK | Consumer price index (year/year) | 4.30% | 4.60% |
| 12.20.2023. | 04:00 | EMU | Annual performance of new car sales (year/year) | - | 14.69% |
| 12.21.2023. | 08:30 | USA | Number of new unemployment benefit applications per week | - | 202K |
| 12.22.2023. | 08:30 | USA | Progress of personal income (month/month) | 0.40% | 0.20% |
| 12.22.2023. | 08:30 | USA | Personal Expenses Development (Month/Month) | 0.20% | 0.20% |
| 12.22.2023. | 08:30 | USA | US Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.80% | 3% |
| 12.22.2023. | 08:30 | USA | Number of new apartment sales | 688K | 679K |
In the 21st century, countless economic data and information are generated hour by hour. In our short, focused economic calendar, we filter out the noise and focus on the essence, which we update on a weekly basis.
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